We continue to see a clear short-term range structure in the market, especially in its main asset, bitcoin. Although the market has managed to break the bearish guideline that it had been marking since November 10, it does not have enough strength to develop an upward momentum with conviction. We can appreciate this situation with the short-term volume data, which shows a clear reduction that is reflected in the price movement
This lack of volume is what is influencing the current situation due to the specific weight of Bitcoin, although if we examine the market as a whole, this phenomenon is not so accentuated
We can clearly see how the total volume of the market does not draw such a clear decline. This makes us think that the focus of crypto investors is not on bitcoin at the moment. To analyze this data, dominance graphs are very important
If we compare the evolution of the dominance of bitcoin vs Ethereum we can appreciate this divergence. The weight of the market movement is being marked by Ethereum
If the reader is a good observer, they will have been able to appreciate a detail in the previous graph of bitcoin that, comparing it with that of Ethereum, marks a significant difference that would confirm our theory based on dominance
While in the case of bitcoin, the open positions in options mark a weighted price of 59,641 USD, at approximately 5% of the current price, in the case of Ethereum, the weighted price in open positions is approximately 5,745 USD. That would mean a potential revaluation until 12/31 of 25% approx.
Therefore, derivatives positions are clear in this regard, and the positioning is clearly biased towards Ethereum. Ethereum has also seen a decrease in volume, but its appearance is clearly bullish in the short term.
DeFi market perspective
On the other hand, we are once again seeing capital inflow in the DeFi protocols, but not marked by an increase in the capitalization of the projects’ tokens, but by something more important which is the blocked capital or TVL. The TVL ratio shows us the amount of money that is blocked in the different financial products offered by these protocols. It is the maximum expression of investor confidence in these projects, and our data indicates a recovery of this volume compared to previous days
Our diagnosis at this time is clearly bullish looking at the composition of the market, seeing all the data exposed we see that the market is in a position to continue rising in the medium or long term, regardless of whether we can see specific declines
We can also appreciate that the prices of derivatives even indicate this clear upward trend, supported mainly by Ethereum. This is a very important data, because the volume of these positions is remarkable. We can also appreciate it in the futures market.
Focus on derivatives market
In the futures market, weighted prices are much tighter, which is common. Despite this, we could see a lot of volatility around the end of the year, because the volume of maturities is important
Undoubtedly, the key point of the market in the coming days will be in the capacity that Ethereum may have to achieve a new all-time high and maintain the bullish momentum.