Stock-to-Flow Ratio & Bitcoin

In the realm of financial markets and asset valuation, various metrics and models have been developed to help investors and analysts assess the potential worth of different assets. One such metric that has gained significant attention, particularly in the world of cryptocurrencies and precious metals, is the stock-to-flow ratio.

This ratio, often abbreviated as S2F, provides a unique perspective on the scarcity and value proposition of an asset. In this article, we will delve into the concept of stock-to-flow, its applications, and its implications for investors.

Understanding Stock-to-Flow Ratio

Stock-to-flow ratio is a concept borrowed from the field of commodities, particularly precious metals like gold and silver. It refers to the ratio of the existing supply (stock) of a commodity to the annual production (flow) of that commodity. In simpler terms, it measures how much of a given asset is already in circulation compared to how much new supply is entering the market each year. Mathematically, the stock-to-flow ratio is calculated by dividing the total existing stock by the annual production.

For example, in the context of Bitcoin, the stock represents the total number of Bitcoins in circulation, while the flow represents the new Bitcoins mined each year. The ratio is calculated by dividing the total number of Bitcoins in circulation by the number of new Bitcoins mined in a year.

Applications in Cryptocurrencies

The concept of stock-to-flow has found particular relevance in the world of cryptocurrencies, especially in the case of Bitcoin. This is because Bitcoin’s supply is predetermined and capped at 21 million coins. With a fixed supply schedule and a known issuance rate through mining, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio has been increasing over time.

Proponents of the stock-to-flow model argue that this ratio is a crucial indicator of an asset’s scarcity and potential value. Assets with higher stock-to-flow ratios are considered to be more scarce, and scarcity is often associated with increased value. Bitcoin’s scarcity is often compared to that of precious metals like gold, which has a relatively high stock-to-flow ratio due to its long accumulation history and limited annual production.

Implications for Investors

The stock-to-flow model has gained traction among investors and analysts as a tool to forecast the potential future value of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. According to this model, the increasing stock-to-flow ratio of Bitcoin could imply a positive correlation with its market value. In other words, as Bitcoin’s issuance rate decreases over time due to halving events, its scarcity could lead to upward pressure on its price, assuming demand remains constant or increases.

However, it’s important to note that while the stock-to-flow model has provided interesting insights, it’s not a foolproof predictor of market behavior. Various other factors, such as market sentiment, regulatory developments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic trends, can significantly impact the value of any asset, including cryptocurrencies.

Critiques and Considerations

Critics of the stock-to-flow model argue that while scarcity is an important factor in asset valuation, it’s not the sole determinant. Real-world factors, adoption rates, network effects, and utility also play crucial roles in determining the value of a cryptocurrency or any other asset. Additionally, historical data is not always indicative of future performance, and economic models must be interpreted cautiously.

The key data source for the stock-to-flow Bitcoin chart is the supply schedule for Bitcoin. This is the number of bitcoins that have been mined to date and will be mined in the future. Because the supply schedule of Bitcoin is built into the Bitcoin code, we know exactly what the supply schedule will be in the future.

The Stock to flow chart is used by many people to try and predict the future price of Bitcoin. The stock-to-flow line is an estimated future price point for $BTC:

The Stock-to-flow chart, its prediction for 1 year later on the 31st December 2023 is $81,956.

Will it happen like this?

Let’s not forget that the bitcoin halving is also scheduled for approximately March/April 2024.

As I always say, do not forget that it is not a recommendation and always DYOR.

Good luck with your investment decisions.