Preparing the next blast?

Bitcoin in lethargy

Bitcoin as the ultimate expression of the cryptoasset market is a bit lazy this week. A week in which we have been awaiting important news on the financial front.

The Federal Reserve meeting has grabbed all the spotlight and attention, but when it comes down to it, the impact has been minimal as the markets have complied exactly with that maxim of discounting events before they happen. Thus, the 25 basis points increase in US interest rates has not been reflected in the price of cryptoassets in any way.

Focusing on Bitcoin as we were commenting, we can appreciate a lack of inertia in each of its movements. That lack of momentum makes the price move in tight ranges and increases uncertainty, with right now a reference at the level of 42,000 USD. A price that acts as a prelude to the real turning point of the market, which is the 45,000 USD level that the price has already visited twice recently and has failed to consolidate the level.

The existence in this area of a bearish guideline has also marked this movement closely, and will surely continue to do so. Its upward piercing would give us a first sign of a return of the strength and momentum needed for prices to regain upward momentum.

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Ethereum under more pressure

ETH, the big fellow traveler continues to have a similar development on the chart, albeit with some nuances. We continue to see how the threat of breaking the bearish guideline is less, and remains a little further away from it. Even so, we can appreciate a similar disposition that could also lead to a movement of perforation of these resistance zones. Undoubtedly in this case, the reference level would be placed in the area of 3,250 USD, an important area that very clearly delimits the border of sentiment change.

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Market risk perception plummets

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The market this week leaves us with a level of risk practically the same as it was at the end of February, as we can see in the CVI indicator. This can be clearly seen in the movements of the so-called altcoins, with positive returns at 7 in the vast majority and especially in the DeFi ecosystem.

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Market Pressure

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Our ATH osicllator is showing us this reaction, coming out in the last hours above the extreme oversold zone (below 54 points), although it fails to consolidate higher levels. From this macro point of view, we would not see a bullish consolidation in the market until securing the 60 points of the indicator.

BTC risk premium vs. ETH stabilized at 0.1

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Even so, and having a point more uncertainty in ETH than in BTC from a technical point of view, the truth is that the derivatives market still shows us a risk premium in the first cryptocurrency (BTC) with respect to the second (ETH), which seems to stabilize at 0.1 points. We also note therefore a rebound in the two ratios, thus showing the market a greater desire for protection against falls possibly

The market shows neither resolve nor confidence to escape to the upside. This dynamic of uncertainty continues

We can also see how there are movements with respect to exchange balances. Specifically, with respect to the speed of change of these balances in the exchanges, there is a strong increase in the case of ETH, which could precede moves to protect or sell the asset

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Uncertainty continues to weigh on the market

We continue to see a market that is fearful and incapable of taking risks beyond what is strictly necessary. Any upward momentum, whether well-founded or not, is followed by sell-offs that bring the price to a sudden halt. We insist on the need to be able to break this dynamic because the technical levels facing the market will require strong volume.

Without this contribution, it will be very difficult for us to see movements of a certain entity, especially to the upside.