The current market situation, speaking of crypto assets and their strong rise at the beginning of the year, leads us to reflect that everything can go down sharply and equally, go up sharply. But in order for something to rise from the fundamental support, it must do so with minimum guarantee ascendants. It seems, what the crypto market could look for next.
Market sentiment indicator:
The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out).
Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With the Fear and Greed Index, it try to save you from your own emotional overreactions.
We are in a moment of trying to rise above resistance zones in this sentiment indicator, but after the strong rise in January, for example in bitcoin, which has risen by +40% in the month, or other crypto assets, with figures, even much higher, the indicator yields, to seek a guarantee support, hoping that the crypto winter is already behind us.
200 Week Moving Average Heatmap
The long term Bitcoin investor can monitor the monthly colour changes. Historically, when we see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a good time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. Periods where the price dots are purple and close to the 200 week MA have historically been good times to buy.
Important to note how the current price of bitcoin, in general, of crypto assets, is below my 200-week moving averages (4 years minus 8 weeks). Statistically, finding below this average indicates an accumulation zone for the long term.
BINANCE COIN (BNB)
We observe other crypto tops, such as BNB (Binance Coin), the long-term situation is encouraging, but when a price rises a lot (observation in a logarithmic chart), it can be locked in a theoretical side channel with a lot of volatility between its support. and resistance, and getting out of it, is not easy. It takes a long time and in bearish volatility to drag retailers into even heavy, latent losses.
In the case of Binance Coin, since the beginning of 2021 (spring) the price has been in this situation, laterality but with strong volatility.
Other cryptos, such as ALGORANG, blockchain, when losing a fundamental support in the fall of crypto winter, gives in more and when trying to rise, the first time it reaches said previous support zone, it becomes resistance.
It will not be easy that after the crypto winter, the market rises, without brake. Remember previous words, for a price to rise strongly, it can only do so with strong ascending minimums, and even so, along the way there are resistances that it will find.
And even bitcoin…
Remembering previous articles of mine, where I commented in areas of 17,000/18,000 USD, that the price had to rise, and it did, that even raising overcome resistances, they could be touched again, but now as support.
Nothing goes up in a straight line and neither does bitcoin.
A price structure must perform, like any structure, rises by steps; lifted one foot to fall, fall less and thus raise the price in the next upward movement, to make constant ascending minimums, in its short-term movement, to create medium terms and in the long term, the complete bullish, long-term structure.
Patience, search observation, it seems, again ascending lows, perhaps in support of the exceeded long-term bearish guideline (guide of the crypto winter bearish movement) and little by little, create the perfect floor so that in the approach at the next halving (estimated approximately for April 2024) the price can build, already with half of the new supply, and more demand coming, a new crypto summer movement.
It is not a buy recommendation.