…explained for people with a beginner level or none.
Today, because it is Saturday, I have taken enough time to analyze bitcoin in detail and remember what in the past I have been collecting about how bitcoin has to rise, along with adding the current moment and what is to come, I think .
To do this, the reader will start a trip to the past, to get closer to the present and then look at the theoretical future of bitcoin.
Remembering that technical analysis and onchain analysis (fundamental traceable on bitcoin) help us to try to decipher the secrets of price movements, but nothing is exact to the millimeter and every investment decision must be our own.
Descending Triangle: We started with this technical analysis figure, which gave us the bitcoin target late last year.
The descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern. The figure is formed by two converging straight lines. The first line is a downward diagonal resistance line, also called the “descending triangle resistance line”.
The second line is horizontal support, also called the “descending triangle support line.” The descending triangle is confirmed/validated if there is oscillation between the two lines.
Each of these lines must be played at least twice to validate the pattern.
NB: a line is said to be valid if the price touches it at least three times at support or resistance.
This implies that the descending triangle pattern is considered valid if the price touches the support line at least three times and the resistance line twice (or at least the support line twice and the resistance line three times).
The price objective of a descending triangle is determined by the height of the base of the triangle that we refer to as the breakout point (below support). Another technique is to draw a line parallel to the resistance line of the descending triangle from the first contact with support.
For bitcoin, this figure has played out in all previous crypto winter markets (if we capped the last ATH, bitcoin’s all-time high in November 2021), we were able to hint at a similar figure as well.
Current history gives us as a reference that, from the base of the descending triangle, the price of bitcoin, in 2015 and in 2018, has touched losses of around 50% of the price.
In the following graph, in addition, we can see that the last bitcoin lows in November 2022 have also touched that area. Falls of almost 50% from the base of the theoretical triangle (omit in this case, the ATH of bitcoin, to be able to see it, thus being a market trap, that market exuberance).
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a technical indicator that aims to anticipate a possible break in the price of an asset. The term gets its name from Daryl Guppy, an Australian financial columnist and book author who developed the concept in his book “Business Tactics.”
The GMMA uses the exponential moving average (EMA) to capture the difference between the price and the value of a stock. A convergence in these factors is associated with a significant trend change. Guppy argues that the GMMA is not a lagging indicator but rather an early warning of an unfolding shift in price and value. From what and how I have been commenting in recent articles for IG.COM, the bitcoin price is developing a very interesting accumulation phase, in view of what will happen next; the new bullish move.
Fibonacci extensions are a technical analysis tool used by traders and investors to identify potential price targets or levels of support and resistance in financial markets. They are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on).
Fibonacci extensions are calculated by extending the Fibonacci sequence beyond the usual ratios (such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%) to higher levels like 127.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%, and so on. These levels are then used to project potential price targets beyond the previous price swings.
How Fibonacci extensions are applied:
Identify the trend: Determine whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
Select the swing points: Find significant highs and lows within the trend.
Measure the Fibonacci retracement levels: Calculate the retracement levels using the Fibonacci ratios (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%). This helps identify potential levels of support or resistance.
Extend the Fibonacci sequence: Extend the Fibonacci ratios to higher levels (e.g., 127.2%, 161.8%, 261.8%, etc.) to project potential price targets or areas of interest.
Assess confluence: Look for areas where multiple Fibonacci extension levels coincide with other technical indicators or chart patterns. These areas are considered strong zones of support or resistance.
Fibonacci extensions can be applied to different timeframes, from short-term intraday trading to long-term investing. They are often used alongside other technical analysis tools to confirm potential price targets or areas of interest.
We now look at the bitcoin chart, in real time with extended fibonacci in its, it seems, most exact, current structure.
Fibonacci extensions: After the above, we have to look to the future and for this, we can also rely on fibonacci. To date it seems that zones 1 (25264 USD) and 1,618 (31289 USD) are related. The next strong upward movement could lead to the price of bitcoin, to zones of 2,618 or approximate zone (corresponds to a theoretical 41037 USD).
Be that as it may, we continue at BELOBABA Academy, passionately trying to decipher the world of trend identification and students and clients learn with our training, what can happen, more likely.
But I remember that nobody has the crystal ball.
That if, knowing about what has been said, helps and transmit it, gives the community of BELOBABA clients, greater power and knowledge for their own decisions.
In this article, an attempt has been made to convey to people without knowledge, and in as simple a way as possible, that with tools and knowledge of technical analysis, onchain analysis, added to macro analysis, it is less difficult, at least, to approach the correct points. purchase or sale, in bitcoin, but also in other types of investment products.
This is not a buy recommendation.
I hope and wish that you have enjoyed the reading and personally if it is of interest to you, I will continue collaborating with BELOBABA, to share from time to time, via Lindekin, part of what my eyes observe in all kinds of graphics.
Happy Saturday everyone!!!