Crypto summer or an oasis in the desert?

The month of January is coming to an end and is leaving a very good taste in the crypto market, with positive results that are taking prices back to the key areas of last summer. But now arises the big question, is it the beginning of a new “crypto summer”? Or is it just an oasis in the desert of recent months?… Today I would like to analyze the current situation in detail and present the different scenarios that we can find in some of the tokens with the highest capitalization.

First of all, let’s start with $BTC. It has remained stable this week, by fighting that resistance zone and showing a very similar scenario as last week.

This weekly increase has left us with a false move at $23k, which as we can see in the chart generates a bearish divergence in the RSI that alerts us to a decrease in buying volume in that price zone.

This situation may lead to a rejection move from this area, but we must remember that the current momentum remains bullish, so we can not rule out the possibility of new highs in the short term and mainly because there is still a distance of $2000 to the resistance zone of last summer set at $25k, as can be seen in the daily chart.

This $25k resistance is key for the evolution of the price, although an immediate breakout seems out of the question in the short term (this could change if it produces a large increase in buying volume), but it could lead to a sequence of rising lows that would give continuity to the current movement in the medium/long term. These lows could occur at either the $21k or the $18k level and would be an accumulation phase for the next few weeks.

This would be my main scenario, bearing in mind that immediate developments could change if either of the key areas are broken.

The most optimistic scenario would be a break of the $25k resistance in the coming weeks, if this happens, the next resistance zone would be at $28k-$30k.

If we move on to analyse the rest of the market, this week the evolution of $HTR stands out, the Hator token that we mentioned last week continues its growth, generating a weekly +40% and reaching $0.12. We should also highlight the evolution of tokens such as $FTM (Fantom), $ALPHA or $MATIC that have increased by 20% during the last 7 days. Although this week I wanted to focus on the situation of $Sol, which despite closing the week with a result close to 0%, is in a key area for its future evolution.

The Solana token was one of the most penalised during the past year, but since the start of 2023 its price has risen by +140%, making it the token that has increased the most in the top 10 in terms of capitalisation. This increase has returned its price to the $25-$26 area, which acted as support during last summer and now has become a key area for its evolution.

If we extend the chart to a 4h period, we can see how a bearish divergence is occurring in the RSI very similar to $BTC.

Although the sequence of rising highs and rising lows in the short term seems clear, a break of the last rising low at $20 could trigger a downward impulse to $17 or even $14. But until this happens, the inertia of the move may even lead us to fake resistance with highs at $28-$30.

Finally, remember that nothing discussed in our articles can be considered as investment advice. Everyone must do their own analysis and develop their own trading strategy. The BELOBABA team only shows analysis and investment tools, and how they help us in our operations when making decisions.