Bitcoin, 218 days and subtracting…

Deciphering Bitcoin’s Halving: Impacts and Predictions

“In the last six decades, FIAT money (euro, dollar, yen, pound, etc…) has been used as a monetary model or system. This monetary system doesn’t represent anything and is only backed by the trust between buyers and sellers that it has value when conducting a transaction. We are dealing with a “Infinite Issuance” money; therefore, FIAT money and its particular method of issuance are a rarity in the history of money since it follows no logical or possible backing. The abuse of this Ponzi system leads to inflation, and inflation, in turn, leads to the devaluation of the currency we use and our savings. Because this system favors the capitalist model and the consumption culture in which we are immersed (where spending more is better as it eliminates anxiety and depression, fostering a fierce competition to have more than anyone else), no one ever considers correcting, stopping, or changing it, so it will eventually collapse.

If you take the time to study and analyze the economic fundamentals of Bitcoin in depth, you will quickly understand that the creator of this digital asset had a good understanding of monetary policy because they proposed a solution to the major problem we have with our FIAT money.

Providing stability and sustainability to a currency – How is that achieved? By forgetting about 5,000 years of money history and established patterns up to now. Developing this theory further, it’s about avoiding the issuance of new coins and continuously depending on third parties, centralized systems, rules of the game tailored to power, and many other interests that we don’t even see. We continue helplessly in an archaic system where money is printed as a remedy when the system is sick.


The solution that Bitcoin presented to us was the regulated and established issuance of a new currency from its inception, valid to be used as money and accepted as a medium of exchange in commercial transactions because it has the three characteristics of good money: Medium of exchange, Unit of account, and Store of value. If we also add that it is secure, efficient, and circulates freely without barriers, hours, and conditions on the internet (the medium where we conduct most of our professional, leisure, and entertainment activities for most of our lives), we have before us a shoe tailored for the new internet-based financial system. If we add programmed mathematical conditions to this regulated and established issuance, such as, for example, that the issuance of new coins regulates itself at set intervals and cannot be modified by humans, scarcity and value are added to this solution. Our duty with Bitcoin is to know how to make use of it since there will be no second chance to reset the catastrophic financial system we have and start with a new economic paradigm based on mathematics and cryptography.”


The topic of this post is the Halving, which is the halving of the number of new bitcoins issued each day. This event occurs approximately every 4 years, 35,000 hours, or 210,000 blocks. Since the issuance of the first block back in 2009 when there were approximately 7,200 Bitcoins issued daily (50 Bitcoins every ten minutes), we have gone through the following:

  • 2012, the first halving, with an issuance of 25 bitcoins per block every 10 minutes, and a price of $12.31.
  • 2016, the second halving, with an issuance of 12.5 bitcoins per block every 10 minutes, and a price of $650.63.
  • 2020, the third halving, with an issuance of 6.25 bitcoins per block every 10 minutes, and a price of $8,500.

The fourth halving, expected in April 2024, will reduce the issuance to 3.125 bitcoins per block every 10 minutes, with a price to be determined at that time. However, applying a basic rule of three, it is foreseeable that it will trade around $42,000.

The Halving will continue to occur every 4 years indefinitely, as by its very nature, there will always be minimal portions of bitcoin to be issued due to its reduction. Mathematically, it will never round up to the commonly mentioned 21,000,000 bitcoins issued by 2140, as tiny portions of bitcoin will always be issued. My thesis is clear: bitcoin will never be fully issued; instead, minuscule amounts of satoshis will be issued. I can clearly see that in the next halving in 2028, miners will earn more from transaction fees in the mined block than from the network reward. What is not 100% certain is whether it will be with the current mining system or with some new model adapted to these special circumstances and driven by the need to reduce extraction costs, as we currently have costs ranging from $12,000 to $16,000 per mined bitcoin.


After the Halving, the general perception of Bitcoin’s price should be from lower to higher due to the evident scarcity in the air. We will see how investors assess it because fundamentally it is currently undervalued. All of this only reinforces the idea that it will become increasingly difficult to acquire bitcoin for a reasonable amount of money, where, paradoxically (and a point that is hard to understand), time is on its side. If we add scarcity and value to the price formula, the result can be very explosive because I don’t know of anything that is infinite and has value over time.”

“It is true that the price of Bitcoin has always increased after each Halving, but of course, this pattern does not necessarily have to hold true for every Halving. It is unpredictable from a speculative standpoint (although, as we’ve seen, it is possible for the price to increase due to its fundamental characteristics), especially in the current atmosphere of political, monetary, and global geopolitical instability and uncertainty.

Institutional investors will make the first move with large purchases at very favorable prices, sparking FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and excitement among retail investors. Retail investors will continue the buying frenzy, driving it back to new all-time highs. Any prediction about the price of Bitcoin is just a guess; no one knows how the market will behave. What I can recommend is that you take advantage of this extra time you have before things happen to study and deeply analyze the characteristics, economic implications, and technical aspects of Bitcoin. Reading its white paper can also help you gain a better understanding of what it represents and its value (not just its price). Don’t aim to get rich with Bitcoin; instead, focus on leaving a legacy for your loved ones.”